Files
Abstract
This paper attempts to analyze the impacts of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on maize
production in Zimbabwe through the construction of a partial equilibrium model that depicts
what could have happened if no further policy shifts had taken place after 2000. The resimulated
baseline model was used to make projections based on the various trends of
exogenous variables in 2000. This means that the model generated an artificial data set based
on what the maize market would have looked like under a set of the pre-2000 existent policy
conditions. The ‘fast track’ land reform policy was thus assessed based on the performance
of the baseline model using a range of “what if” assumptions. Commercial area harvested
was 39 % less than what could have been harvested in 2001, and declining by negative
80.57 % in 2007. Results showed total maize production was 61.85 % and 43.88 % less than
what could have been produced in the 2002 and 2005 droughts, respectively. This may imply
that droughts would have been less severe if the ‘fast track’ land reform was not
implemented. Therefore, the ‘fast track’ land reform had a negative effect on maize production. Thus, the econometric model system developed provided a basis through which
the effects of the FTLRP on the maize market may be analyzed and understood.