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Abstract
The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation and
econometric framework. The model consists of six sub regions. These regions are the U.S., South Asia,
North Asia and the Middle East, the Americas, Africa and Europe. Each region comprises of several
countries and each country model has a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkage
equations. All equations used in this model were estimated using econometric procedures or identities.
Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors such
as income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determined
policy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which countries intervene in their rice sector
economy.
More specifically, the Arkansas Global Rice Model is a representation of the world rice economy.
It is specified as a series of six regional models, each having a similar structure within which endogenous
relationships explain the economic factors determining rice demand, supply, trade and prices. Individual
country models are then linked through net trade that highlights the interdependence of countries in the
world rice economy.