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Abstract

Based on the assumption that the interest rate is constant, the unemployment insurance risk model for migrant workers is established. The premium income and the expense of this risk model are compound Poisson process. Among them, the premium of an insurance policy and the claim amount of unemployment insurance belong to random sequence. The proof procedure of model deduction and relevant ruin probability are put forward, and then the estimation formula for exact value of ruin probability of insurance company is obtained without considering the interest rate. Taking a certain city in China as an example, willingness investigation on unemployment insurance purchase is carried out among some migrant workers in six industries. According to the investigation data, the unemployment insurance risk model of migrant workers is used to estimate the ruin probability of insurance company. Results show that the more initial capital leads to lower ruin probability of insurance company and stronger survival capability. It is proved that under the background of financial crisis, implementation of unemployment insurance of migrant workers is an effective way to solve the unemployment problem of migrant workers.

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