Trade, Technique and Composition Effects: What is Behind the Fall in World-Wide SO2 Emissions 1990-2000?

Combining unique data bases on emissions with sectoral output and employment data, we study the sources of the fall in world-wide SO2 emissions and estimate the impact of trade on emissions. Contrarily to concerns raised by environmentalists, an emission-decomposition exercise shows that scale effects are dominated by technique effects working towards a reduction in emissions. A second exercise comparing the actual trade situation with an autarky benchmark estimates that trade, by allowing clean countries to become net importers of emissions, leads to a 10% increase in world emissions with respect to autarky in 1990, a figure that shrinks to 3.5% in 2000. Additionally, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that emissions related to transport are of the same magnitude. In a third exercise, we use linear programming to simulate extreme situations where world emissions are either maximal or minimal. It turns out that effective emissions correspond to a 90% reduction with respect to the worst case, but that another 80% reduction could be reached if emissions were minimal. Replaced with revised version of paper 10/18/07.


Issue Date:
2007
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/7448
Total Pages:
41
JEL Codes:
F11; Q56
Note:
Replaced with revised version of paper 10/18/07.
Series Statement:
ETA Nota di Lavoro 93.2007




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-23

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