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Abstract
This paper describes a global model for agriculture and bioenergy (GLOMAB) that
incorporates biomass, biofuels and bioelectricity sectors into the GTAP-Energy model by
expanding the global GTAP database, production and consumption structures. Biofuels
are separated between first- generation (sugar ethanol, starch ethanol) and second- generation
(cellulosic ethanol) biofuels and associated biomass feedstocks (maize, sugar
cane, crop residues, woody biomass). Beside biofuels, the model also incorporates
bioelectricity (as separate form conventional electricity) which competes for the same
biomass feedstocks with cellulosic ethanol sector (agricultural residues, woody biomass).
With this broad-based representation of the bioenergy system likely to prevail over the
medium term (2010-2020), the model offers a useful framework for analyzing the
growing influence of biofuels on agricultural markets, the implications biofuel subsidies
and tariffs on trade in biofuels and biomass, and a comparative analysis of alternative
policies to mitigate role of GHG emissions (mandates versus carbon taxes).
In this paper, we apply the model to an analysis of biofuels and food security for two
developing countries – Peru and Tanzania, and examine the implications on food
security. Preliminary results for Tanzania show that the implications of ethanol
expansion depend on the feedstock used with Cassava-ethanol draws more additional
labor and land then sugar-cane based ethanol. Moreover, greater productivity of
feedstocks can alleviate the pressure on new lands required to meet new biofuel needs.
While sugar cane ethanol may be more efficient in terms of resource use compared to
biodiesel, the latter may have better opportunities for food security in terms of labor
employment. However, suggestions for further research are suggested including
expanding the CGE analysis to include micro-simulations where the implications for food
security are assessed for specific household types.