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Abstract
This article has been made according to my dissertation in which I present some opportunity of risk analysis and risk management
in the decision support of crop production.
Plant production is one of the most hazardous agricultural enterprises. Among risk sources seasonal fluctuation of average yields plays
an important role in the assessment of enterprises. Therefore, I analyzed the production risk of the produced crops in Hungary compared to
the European Union’s, after that I took into consideration the production site’s circumstances as well.
Decision-makers must possess such means, by which they can measure, oversee and manage the effects and consequences of risk. In crop
production linear programming models can be used to determine the optimal crop structure, by which income-sensitivity can be taken into
account, but it does not reflect the behavior to risk. This deficiency can be avoided by using risk programming models. By the complementary
usage of linear programming and risk programming models the optimizing and adaptive planning can be executed.
It often causes a problem for the producers to decide when and how much to sell to realize a maximum turnover. The decision is mostly
influenced by the selling prices, but also important factors are the financial status of the business, the amount of credit and its conditions, the stock -
piling opportunities and costs, and the short-term investment opportunities as well. For the resolution of the problem I set up a dynamic, simultaneous
financial model by which the system-conceptual analysis of the above mentioned factors and a sound decision-making can be executed.