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Abstract
This essay is a critique of research evaluation
research. Considerable evidence exists that
agricultural research conducted during the era
when projects were chosen by diffuse selection
systems yielded extraordinarily high returns. It
is not obvious that the formalized, quantitative,
and typically centralized selection models can be
expected to produce higher contemporary returns
than the decentralized informal mechanisms. All
ex ante evaluations are intrinsically subjective,
regardless of technique used to generate the
evaluation. The extreme uncertainty surrounding
the nonrepetitive new-knowledge production function
further limits the potential of the sophisticated
selection procedures. Perhaps of greatest
importance, however, are the high costs
imposed by these procedures in terms of scientists'
time, morale, and "artistic" research tool
atrophication.