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Abstract
If agriculture is included in an Australian emissions trading scheme then it may face from 2015
at the earliest, a price for its greenhouse gas emissions; and thereby have incentives to offset
and lessen its emissions. Yet because there is currently little understanding of the spatial
pattern of emissions in agricultural regions of Australia, the extent of the challenge the sector
faces in reducing its emissions is not fully recognised. To improve our understanding, this
study uses the National Greenhouse Accounts methodology to estimate the spatial and
temporal patterns of agricultural emissions since 1990 in the key agricultural region in
Australia’s southwest. This region generates almost 40 percent of the nation’s winter crop
production and supports over a quarter of the nation’s sheep. The quantity and trajectory of
emissions from each shire in this region are reported, thereby identifying where emission
problems may be worsening or easing. The composition and causes of changes in emissions are
discussed. This study also generates spatial estimates of sequestration costs by drawing on land
and forestry cost and tree growth data. Many relatively low cost sites for carbon sequestration,
based on permanent reforestation, are identified with the implication that agriculture may be
able to cost-effectively offset its emissions, as well as some of those from other sectors.
However, an implication of this study’s findings is that in some shires eventually there may be
strong land use competition between farming and forestry.