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Abstract
There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing
sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for
housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential
real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric
model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the
previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the
selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.