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Abstract
CAP reform affects
employment in the agricultural sector as well as
in other sectors of the regional economy through
changes in regional and sectoral competitiveness
and resulting re-allocation of fixed resources.
However, analysis of the relationship between
CAP reform and total regional employment for
the EU as a whole are scarce. In this paper a
rather ad-hoc method is proposed to fill this gap.
Both the CAPRI model and the LEITAP model
is used. Both models are linked through an
econometrically estimated and scenario specific
relationship between agricultural income and
employment in LEITAP. LEITAP is also used to
analyse the employment changes at regional
level in the rest of the economy. LEITAP results
are regionalized using sectoral employment
shares per region in 2020 in the reference
scenario. This paper presents and discusses the
strengths and the weaknesses of the proposed
ad-hoc downscaling approach.