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Abstract
The agricultural modelling world has
generated several models aiming at the analysis of the
response of the sector to certain changes in exogenous
mainly policy variables. Among those, the CAPRI
modelling system developed by a consortium centred on
the University of Bonn and the AGLINK-COSIMO
model, a joint product of the OECD and the FAO, are
well known and accepted as comprehensive tools. This
analysis focuses on a qualitative comparison of both
models and particularly on the process of setting up the
baseline. The baseline is a medium-term projection of
agricultural markets reflecting current policies and
those already decided upon. This projection in turn
serves as the base for comparisons when analyzing
scenarios. It is shown that CAPRI uses generic and
automatic procedures whenever possible for conducting
the database and the baseline, while AGLINK-COSIMO
puts more emphasis on expert knowledge in this process.
Both approaches are shown to have certain advantages
while the conclusion that a combination of them would
potentially improve both models will be drawn from this
analysis.