The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (ERS) maintains and uses a dynamic dairy sector model for the United States. This model is a tool for the development of 10-year dairy projections, as published in the USDA Agricultural Projections annual report. The model is also used to analyze changes in market conditions and the impacts of changes in various Federal Government policies on the dairy sector. This report provides documentation on the specification and estimation employed by this model to obtain projections for the dairy sector.
Details
Title
Documentation for the USDA, Economic Research Service Annual U.S. Dairy Sector Econometric Model
Record Identifier
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338950
Language
English
Total Pages
70
Note
Historical data from various sources are used in the model. Data are drawn from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), and Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The main data sources outside of USDA include the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model includes equations related to demand for dairy products; milk components of dairy products (milk fat and skim solids); manufacturing allocation of milk and milk components; imports and exports; stocks of dairy products; various Federal Government policies; and prices of milk and dairy products. Model equations include regressions, estimates based on conversion factors for milk components, and identities (straightforward calculations that are always true, such as milk production = number of milk cows x milk per cow). Regression statistics provided in this Technical Bulletin are used to assess how well regression equations reflect historical data relationships.
