The competitive environment in the agri-food sector is evolving as the food manufacturing and retailing industries become more concentrated. Evolving industry structure and new firm investment portend changes in future firm competitiveness and performance. This research describes how large food-manufacturing and retail firm performance has shifted and how firm valuation signals expected future change in performance. While there have been expectations that return on investment of large food retailers would increase relative to large packaged-food manufacturers, we find that this has not yet happened and that market valuations imply that retailers are not likely to gain on manufacturers in the future.