Effets des investissements directs etrangers sur l'acces a la terre, le marche foncier et le commerce intra-regional au Cameroun

Using a Computable General Equilibrium Modeling (CGEM) approach, the aim of this study is to put on evidence the link between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), land access, land market, international trade and poverty in Cameroon. More precisely, we capture in one hand the potential impact of FDI on land access and land market in Cameroon and in another hand we show how the combination and coordination of those three elements can stimulate international trade and reduce poverty (food poverty) while ensuring food security in Cameroon. Basing on the hypothesis of a full mobility of our five production factors (labor, private agricultural capital, private non-agricultural capital, public capital and land), the result of our simulation of an increase of 25% of the amount of FDI inflow in the agricultural sector lead to an increase of the number of agricultural land, an improve of the quantity and the quality of agricultural inputs and the increase of the agriculture production in Cameroon of about 33.38%. The consequence is an increase of agricultural product offer by the Cameroonian industrial sector up to 90% and the increase of 19% of the supply of agricultural products for the regional market of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). Due to the law of Demand and Supply, this increase of the supply of agricultural product leads to an improve of 22% of the purchasing power of households coupled with a real impact on their living conditions. We also notice a drop of 12% of export price of Cameroonian commodities. This reduction allows an improvement of term of trade leading to an increase of the abroad revenue of regional trade partners of Cameroon with an incidence of the competitivity of Cameroonian agriculture and agro-industry. Then, we notice an increase of 29% of agricultural product exports as a response to the increase of demand up to the same amount. As main result, the Payment Balance of Cameroon especially, the Current Transactions Balance is improving and the whole country stands like an Emerging Country. Our simulation results also show that, the rise of agricultural production of Cameroon leads to a rise of intra-regional exchanges, reinforcing in the meantime regional integration process. However, on the domestic market, we notice a drop of the consumption of agricultural products by 9.5% for Cameroonian households and by 10.9% for public services. The agricultural sector itself is the main beneficiary of this increase of the production couple with the rise of 33.33% of inter-sectoral consumption, follow by the industrial sector (agro-industry) with an increase of 5.5% of its consumption of agricultural product. We then face a drop up to 12% of the agricultural product consumption in the sector of services, but with a rise of 33% of the use of services in the agricultural sector. This situation is explained by the fact that, the increase of agricultural production thank to inflow capital is orientated into transformation that is agro-industry and exports. Since, foreign investor aiming at making profits with respect to their investment. As far as, remuneration of production factors is concerned, while the remuneration of labor is increasing up to 29% couple with a rise of 42% of labor demand in the agricultural sector, in the contrary there is a reduction of 26% of the benefit of investment. Government’s and household‘s revenue also decrease respectively for 44% and 26%, but there is an increase of the revenue of the rest of the world up to 132%. Finally, Cameroonian added value in the agricultural sector rises for 33% couple with an increase of the Gross Development Product for 0.0003%. Policy recommendations are thus decline in improving business climate in term of attracting foreign capital and investors and the implementation of a real industrial policy in the agricultural sector. In the same line, the national policy on land access could be less strong when land is to be used for agriculture. All these statements can be put together for the ongoing revision of Economic Partnership Agreements in Cameroon and the march toward achieving regional integration in central Africa.

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Paper presented at the 2014 GTAP Conference in Dakar (Senegal) and at the 2014 Land policy conference in Addis-Ababa (Ethiopia).

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