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Abstract
Concerns about the economic impacts of achieving deep cuts in emissions are a pivotal issue in
achieving the political support required for emissions reductions. We assess a widespread
reference point bias in the communication of economic modelling of climate policy impacts, and
find it significantly reduces public support for emissions reductions. At least one in five Americans
and Australians incorrectly believe that reducing emissions would result in incomes falling from
current levels – triggering loss aversion – rather than incomes rising more slowly. Avoiding this
misunderstanding results in support being up to 23 percentage points higher than when impacts
are presented as reductions in income from current levels. This suggests that clearly
communicating that incomes continue to rise could have a larger effect on support for emissions
reductions among US and Australian citizens over the next few years than increased public
confidence in climate science. We conclude that improved communication of policy impacts,
including that ambitious stabilisation goals are consistent with strong trend economic growth and
rising incomes and employment, has a crucial role in facilitating an informed democratic response
to climate change, and may be necessary for achieving a political mandate for global action.