Modelo de Análise da Oferta de Exportação de Milho Brasileira: 2001 a 2012

This study aims to estimate the corn export supply function for Brazil from 2001 to 2012. For this analysis we developed a theoretical model estimated using the cointegration and vector error correction model (VEC). The variables used were: corn exports, international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP. The results obtained showed the existence of long-term relationship between the variables. The international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP had a significant impact on corn exports, showing signs as expected by the theoretical model. There was a positive impact on corn exports after an unanticipated shock in the soybean price and negative impact after a not anticipated shock the slaughter of poultry. In relation to the international price, it was found that a shock in this variable has a negative impact on corn exports. In order to assess the relationships between the domestic price and the international price of corn, there was the weak exogeneity test between the variables and it was found that, despite this market still does not have the Law of One Price, changes in the international corn price affect the domestic price.


Subject(s):
Issue Date:
Sep 30 2015
Publication Type:
Journal Article
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/232030
Published in:
Brazilian Journal of Rural Economy and Sociology (Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural-RESR), Volume 53, Number 3
Page range:
455-476
Total Pages:
22
JEL Codes:
Q02; Q17; C32.

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