The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO

Type On August 6 2014 the Russian Federation introduced a one year ban on imports into the Russian Federation of agricultural products, raw materials and food, originating from selected countries including the EU. This paper provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of this import ban on EU agricultural markets. Furthermore it provides an insight in the shifting trade patterns and price effects at EU, Russian and world level. We use the Aglink-Cosimo model, a recursive partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. Its gross trade specification is problematic for the study of bilateral trade. Therefore the model was extended with an ad hoc incorporation of bilateral trade. The initial results show that the impact for the EU remains rather limited as the EU can divert a considerable part of its trade with Russia to other markets. The impact on the Russian market is however expected to be considerable as imports can't be easily substituted and domestic production has problems to expand productions significantly within the timeframe of the ban.


Issue Date:
2015
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/211574
Total Pages:
24




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-28

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