EVALUATING THE USE OF FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST THE FARM LEVEL U.S. CORN PRICE

A model is developed using bases, marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast a season-average U.S. farm price for corn. Forecast accuracy measures include the mean absolute percentage error and Theil's U-statistic. Futures forecasts are compared with a naïve forecast and WASDE projections. Futures price forecasts are timely and reliable.


Subject(s):
Issue Date:
2001
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/20612
Total Pages:
22
Series Statement:
Selected Paper




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-04-26

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