Files
Abstract
This paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures
to explore the evolution of China’s demand and supply
for food. Although demand for food calories is probably
close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift
to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is
likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural
resources. Estimating the relationship between income
growth and food demand with data from a wide
range of countries, China’s demand growth appears to
have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the
supply side, output of food depends strongly on the
productivity growth associated with income growth and
on the country’s agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses
of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest
that China’s current income level falls in the range where
consumption growth outstrips production growth,
but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China’s
population growth and dietary transition slow down.
Continued agricultural productivity growth through
further investment in research and development, and
expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as
well as sustainable management of agricultural resources,
are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will
feed China in the 21st century.