USING FUTURES PRICES TO FORECAST THE SEASON-AVERAGE U.S. CORN PRICES

A model is developed using basis values (cash prices less futures), marketing weights, and a composite of monthly futures and cash prices to forecast the season-average U.S. corn farm price. Forecast accuracy measures include the absolute percentage error, mean absolute percentage error, squared error, and mean squared error. The futures model forecasts are compared to USDA's WASDE projections. No statistically significance difference was found between the futures model forecasts and the season-average price projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Futures model forecasts are reliable, and timely.


Issue Date:
2004
Publication Type:
Conference Paper/ Presentation
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/19020
Total Pages:
21
Series Statement:
2004 Conference, St. Louis, MO, April 19-20, 2004




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-10-15

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