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Abstract
Seasonal variations of the price premium for bread and feed wheat indicate opportunities to
profitably adjust grain marketing strategies of farmers that harvest (and store) both qualities. We
estimate the seasonal pattern of price premiums on the German market using a vector error
correction approach, which accounts for multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity of
the error terms. Results indicate a significant downward trend for the seasonal premium, with the
trend’s magnitude depending on the average quality of harvested wheat. If farmers separately store
both bread and feed wheat, they should tend to sell bread wheat before they sell feed wheat,
particularly in years of low average wheat qualities.