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Abstract
The spillover effects of agricultural research are of interest because research-induced supply
shifts in non-target regions can reduce the benefits for producers in the target regions. The introduction
of semi-dwarfing genes in wheat into Australia provides an example of spillover from the
CIMMYT program. Australia's wheat-growing environments were not those for which the CIMMYT
material was specifically targeted. However, some of these lines were introduced into Australia
and used in breeding programs to produce important supply shifts in Australia. An examination
is made of the effects that the spillover had in Australia.
Using an index of varietal improvement, with its attendant qualifications, an estimate of the
extent of that shift resulting from the CIMMYT -based varieties was obtained. While the extent
varied widely between states, the shift was found to be between 0.2 and 7.7%, with an overall
average for Australia of 3.5% by 1983. On the basis of an assumption of perfectly elastic export
demand for Australian wheat, the estimated total cost savings to Australian producers were US$747
million (in 1983-84 dollars) for the period 1974 to 1983, or an average ofUS$75 million per year.
The annual contribution of Australia to CIMMYT has averaged approximately US$340,000 in
recent years, while the average annual expenditure on wheat breeding in Australia has been US$4
to 5 million. On the basis of pedigrees, approximately two-thirds of the cost savings of CIMMYTbased
varieties could be attributed to CIMMYT per se, with the remaining one-third attributable
to the inputs of the Australian wheat breeders.