000169808 001__ 169808
000169808 005__ 20171217173220.0
000169808 037__ $$a329-2016-13220
000169808 041__ $$aen_US
000169808 084__ $$aG28
000169808 084__ $$aH53
000169808 084__ $$aI38
000169808 084__ $$aQ11
000169808 084__ $$aQ18
000169808 245__ $$aModeling Indian Wheat and Rice Sector Policies
000169808 260__ $$c2014
000169808 269__ $$a2014
000169808 270__ $$mmarta.kozicka@gmail.com$$pKozicka,   Marta
000169808 270__ $$mmkalkuhl@uni-bonn.de$$pKalkuhl,   Matthias
000169808 270__ $$mshwetasaini22@gmail.com$$pSaini,   Shweta
000169808 270__ $$mjan.brockhaus@uni-bonn.de$$pBrockhaus,   Jan
000169808 300__ $$a63
000169808 336__ $$aConference Paper/ Presentation
000169808 490__ $$aPaper 4850
000169808 520__ $$aThis paper serves to disentangle the complex system of Indian food policies, related to wheat and rice procurement, storage, distribution and trade. Using time series for national aggregate data, these policies are econometrically analyzed, next their implications for the markets are assessed and finally their fiscal costs are estimated. The study revealed strong impact of the policy measures on the production, procurement, stocks and trade. We detected several market distortions and mounting fiscal costs.  
Wheat and rice supply strongly and significantly responds to the minimum support price (MSP). Wholesale prices at planting or lagged harvest time prices are largely irrelevant for the production. The Food Cooperation of India’s (FCI) procurement volume is driven by the production level and the difference between the MSP and the market price. The signs of the estimated price elasticities of demand are consistent with the theory, however for rice they turned out to be insignificant. The negative income elasticity of rice consumption as well as the downward trend in rice consumption suggest changing habits and the inferior character of rice as a consumption good. The public stock analysis suggests higher storage losses for rice (10%) than for wheat (2%). Strong crowding out effects of the public stocks on private stocks and negative impact of export restrictions on private ending stocks was found.  Total exports are highly distorted by the trade regulations, which whipped out the trade response to the price incentives.   
Starting from 2006/07, there is a clear upward trend in inflation adjusted costs of operating the public food procurement and distribution system, coming mostly from the rising procurement volume and the MSP. On the other hand, the revenues have declined in real terms, due to lower real central issue prices and only marginal revenues from the domestic sales and exports. As a result, the food subsidy has shown a permanent growth in real terms. The seasonal analysis of the intra-year data revealed strong seasonality of prices and procurement and stock levels, in particular for wheat (less for rice).
000169808 542__ $$fLicense granted by Marta Kozicka (marta.kozicka@gmail.com) on 2014-05-26T17:42:17Z (GMT):

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000169808 650__ $$aAgricultural and Food Policy
000169808 650__ $$aCrop Production/Industries
000169808 650__ $$aDemand and Price Analysis
000169808 650__ $$aFood Security and Poverty
000169808 6531_ $$aIndia
000169808 6531_ $$awheat
000169808 6531_ $$arice
000169808 6531_ $$apolicies
000169808 6531_ $$astocks
000169808 6531_ $$afiscal costs
000169808 700__ $$aKozicka, Marta
000169808 700__ $$aKalkuhl, Matthias
000169808 700__ $$aSaini, Shweta
000169808 700__ $$aBrockhaus, Jan
000169808 773__ $$d2014
000169808 8564_ $$s2193820$$uhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/169808/files/AAEA%20Indian%20Policies%20paper.pdf
000169808 887__ $$ahttp://purl.umn.edu/169808
000169808 909CO $$ooai:ageconsearch.umn.edu:169808$$pGLOBAL_SET
000169808 912__ $$nSubmitted by Marta Kozicka (marta.kozicka@gmail.com) on 2014-05-26T18:07:41Z
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  Previous issue date: 2014
000169808 982__ $$gAgricultural and Applied Economics Association>2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota
000169808 980__ $$a329