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Abstract
This paper reports results of incorporating fish into IMPACT, a global model of
food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices to 2020 for 32
commodities in 36 regions. It summarizes results for production, consumption, net
exports and real price changes for 10 economic categories of fisheries items,
disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Under the medium-variant
scenario for the uncertain capture fisheries sectors, global production of food fish is
projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from
aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. Global per capita
fish consumption is projected to be 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a
margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture.
Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish
production in 2020. China's share of world production will continue to expand, while
that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will
rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise
18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous
aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing
countries. Sensitivity analysis incorporating a very pessimistic view of capture fisheries
leads to escalating food fish prices (+69% for high-value finfish) and soaring fishmeal
prices (+134%), whereas an optimistic view of increased investment in aquaculture
lowers real prices of low value food fish (-12%), and raises fishmeal prices (+42%).