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Abstract
It is likely that climate change will be associated with reductions in inflows of water to
the Murray–Darling Basin. In this study, we analyse the effects of climate change in
the Murray–Darling Basin using a simulation model that incorporates a state-contingent
representation of uncertainty. The severity of the impact depends, in large measure,
on the extent to which climate change is manifested as an increase in the
frequency of drought conditions. Adaptation will partially offset the adverse impact of
climate change.