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Abstract
This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of change in livelihood
strategies (“development pathways”), land management practices, agricultural
productivity, resource and human welfare conditions in Uganda since 1990, based upon a
community-level survey conducted in 107 villages. The pattern of agricultural
development since 1990 involved increasing specialization and commercialization of
economic activities, consistent with local comparative advantages and market
liberalization. This pattern was associated with changes in land use and agricultural
practices, including expansion of cultivated area, grazing lands and woodlots at the
expense of forest and wetlands; increased ownership of cattle but declining ownership of
other livestock; and increased adoption of purchased inputs (though still low) and some
soil and water conservation practices. Despite some agricultural intensification, crop
yields, food security, and a wide range of natural resource conditions (especially soil
fertility) appear to have degraded throughout most of Uganda. At the same time, many
indicators of human welfare and access to goods and services have improved.
Six dominant development pathways emerged, all but one of which involved
increasing specialization in already dominant activities: expansion of cereal production,
expansion of banana and coffee production, non-farm development, expansion of
horticultural production, expansion of cotton, and stable coffee production. Of these,
expansion of banana and coffee production was most strongly associated with adoption of
resource-conserving practices and improvements in resource conditions, productivity and
welfare. Other strategies are needed for less- favored areas not suited for this pathway.
Road development appears to have contributed to improvements in many welfare
and some natural resource conditions, except forest and wetland availability. There are
thus likely trade-offs among resource and welfare outcomes when pursuing road
development where forests or wetlands are important. Elsewhere, road development can
be a “win-win” development strategy. Irrigation was found to reduce pressure to expand
cultivated area at the expense of forest, wetland and fallow, and is associated with
improvement in several welfare and resource indicators; it may also be a “win-win”
strategy. Government and non-governmental organization programs were also found to
contribute to improvements in several indicators of productivity, resource and welfare,
though there were some mixed results. Such programs may cause declines in one area
(e.g., yields of a traditional crop or energy availability) by focusing on improvements in
another area (e.g., improvement of another crop or protection of forests). Thus, trade-offs
appear to be inherent in many efforts to improve agriculture or protect resources. Population growth had an insignificant impact on most indicators of change, though there
is some evidence of population- induced agricultural intensification. Population growth
had an insignificant association with changes in resource conditions, and mixed
association with welfare indicators. In general, the findings support neither the
pessimism of some neo-Malthusian observers or the optimism of some neo-Boserupian
observers regarding the impacts of population growth.