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Abstract
Strategic planning is increasingly being adapted by agricultural
research, development and extension organisations. Strategic decisions
require an assessment of the future and, in particular, the likelihood of growth in industries. Normally this is conducted descriptively with little
quantitative analysis and often without involvement from economists.
There are many tools available which help to provide information about
the future, mathematical programming (MP) being one of them. This
paper demonstrates the use of MP to analyse scenarios. Expert groups
estimated scenarios for prices and productivity changes which they
considered plausible over the next 10 years. The MP model, MIDAS,
was used to generate the optimal mix of enterprises and levels of crop
and livestock production consistent with these scenarios for typical
broad acre crop/livestock farms in different regions of Western Australia.
Results are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of this approach
are discussed.