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Abstract
The objective of this article is to present the MEECA model,
an innovative econometric methodology for generating economically
consistent long term scenarios of projections for agriculture and living
stock. This methodology is based upon the spatial econometrics, taking
into account the spatial effects, namely, the spatial dependence and the
spatial heterogeneity. In the regressions, we incorporate various spatial
terms, such as spillover effects, spatial expansion of coefficients, spatial
error lag, etc. This methodology is applied for the estimation of the spatial
econometric models of some agricultural and living stock products in the
Amazon region, namely, rice, soy bean, corn, other extractive products
(excluding wood), cattle and other living stock products. The MEECA
model is directly linked to an applied general equilibrium model,
guaranteeing the systemic consistency of the projections.