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Abstract
The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy
debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The objective if this paper is to
evaluate the impact of the post 2013 CAP policy instruments on the land market in the Province of Bologna
(Italy), based on a combination of survey and modelling information. Attention is particularly focused on the
regionalization of payments and considers both potential reactions by individual farms and their interaction
on the market. Modelling and survey information show a reaction of the land demand to the shift from the
historical to the regionalised payments, with opposite reactions by different farms, hence incentives to
adaptation through land markets exchange (rent). The regionalized payment seems to be more capitalized
into the land value, at the margin, as long as it is less connected to entitlement. As a result, the
regionalisation would cause increased rental prices. Survey information, however also reveals a major
uncertainty by farmers in interpreting and devising an appropriate reaction to the expected reform.