Production Under Uncertainty: A Simulation Study

In this article we model production technology in a state-contingent framework. Our model analyzes production under uncertainty without regard to the nature of producer risk preferences. In our model producers? risk preferences are captured by the risk-neutral probabilities they assign to the different states of nature. Using a state-general state-contingent specification of technology we show that rational producers who encounter the same stochastic technology can make significantly different production choices. Further, we develop an econometric methodology to estimate the risk-neutral probabilities and the parameters of stochastic technology when there are two states of nature and only one of which is observed. Finally, we simulate data based on our state-general state-contingent specification of technology. Biased estimates of the technology parameters are obtained when we apply conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator on the simulated data.

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Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
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JEL Codes:
C15; C63; D21; D22; D81; Q10
Series Statement:
Risk and Uncertainty Program

 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-04-26

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