Inductive Reasoning About Unawareness

We develop a model of games with awareness that allows for differential levels of awareness. We show that, for the standard modal logical interpretations of belief and awareness, a player cannot believe there exist propositions of which he is unaware. Nevertheless, we argue that a boundedly rational individual may regard the possibility that there exist propositions of which she is unaware as being supported by inductive reasoning, based on past experience and consideration of the limited awareness of others. In this paper, we provide a formal representation of inductive reasoning in the context of a dynamic game with awareness. We show that, given differential awareness over time and between players, individuals can derive inductive support for propositions expressing their own unawareness.


Issue Date:
Jun 16 2009
Publication Type:
Working or Discussion Paper
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/151188
Total Pages:
32
JEL Codes:
D80; D82
Series Statement:
Risk and Uncertainty Program
R09/1




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2017-08-15

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