Files
Abstract
This study analyzed the Brazilian coffee exporter’s losses between the years
2002 and 2009, by emphasizing the 2007/09 crisis, which affected several sectors and
generated instability and uncertainty about the future results of the economic activities.
The Brazilian coffee exporting sector is fully inserted in this context, once it acts in the
financial markets and it is still subject to the strong variations from the physical market.
Thus, the central analysis dealt with the volatility of the exporters returns and was
based on auto regressive models with conditional heteroscedaticity (ARCH) and on the
Value at Risk (VAR) estimative. As a supplement, the effects from the external demand
for the Brazilian coffee and from the exchange rate variation over the Brazilian exporter
sector were presented. The results showed that price variation during the years 2008
and 2009 did not generate losses higher than those caused by other crisis, occurred
between the years 2000 and 2009. The existence of exporting gains from exchange
revenue was noticed. These gains were important to minimize the effects from the
decline of the volume and price of the exports, due to the drop of the worldwide
consumption.