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Abstract
Over the years agricultural technology has created remarkable commodity production growth
rates and enhanced general economic growth through food production, manufactured goods and trade
for most nations. Biotechnology holds the promise of continuing this remarkable record. There is a long
list of potential benefits of biotechnology but unfortunately the perceived costs/risks are also many.
These concerns have lead to significant consumer reluctance to accept the technology and, in some
cases, outright consumer rejection of the technology. To discuss the future of biotechnology, scenario
analysis is used to examine the social and economic impact of biotechnology on industrialized and
emerging nations. Four scenarios are discussed in detail: biotechnology may be formally or informally
banned (Scenario 1), fully accepted (Scenario 2), marketed through strict labeling (Scenario 3), or
limited to non-food applications (Scenario 4). Consumer acceptance of this technology will be key to
determining which scenario becomes the future for each nation. The likelihood of each scenario is
different for each nation, the U.S. will most likely evolve into scenario 2 or 3, while in the EU scenarios
1 or 4 are more likely. Determining the future for emerging nations is extremely complex and dependent
on several factors like malnutrition rates, environmental safety and historical trading routes. Each
scenario has a major impact on small producers worldwide which ultimately influences the health of
rural communities. The analysis indicates that emerging nations are the most sensitive to the timing of
decisions being made about the future of biotechnology. If biotechnology becomes a reality, new data
will be required to assess the social and economic impact of this technology.