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Abstract
Available information indicates that the future competitive scenario for EU
olive oil will be shaped by the market dynamics and business strategies, and the
ongoing agricultural and trade policy reforms (CAP reform, WTO Doha Round
negotiations, regional and bilateral trade agreements). Based on this premise, the
purpose of this contribution is to present an overall evaluation of the market change
and policy reform processes affecting the EU olive oil sector, pointing out the main
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) that can be associated to
their present and expected evolution. The analysis is performed with a systemic
approach to market and policy changes, under the general hypothesis that these are
governed by a series of economic and regulatory factors on which there is little
empirical evidence or which still are subject of public debate whose outcomes are not
clear. It is also assumed that while some of these factors act on a global level, others
may vary across countries and even within countries amongst different players,
which means that there is a wide spectrum of possible strategies and courses of
action for the future. The information used is gathered through a combination of
secondary sources and primary data from consultations with a representative group
of key informants in olive oil policy and markets.