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Abstract
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in
developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households
whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global
economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate
zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product
prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect
of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics,
but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on
agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter. The results suggest there may be less
cause for concern over food security than some earlier studies indicated, but the degrees of
uncertainty involved in such modelling are sufficient to warrant a precautionary approach.